The Age of the Unthinkable: Why the New World Disorder Constantly Surprises Us And What We Can Do About It

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It's a hit!

Just finished reading this over vacation--definitely a book that requires conversation. Wish I had a partner in crime to talk about all the big ide... (show more)

Just finished reading this over vacation--definitely a book that requires conversation. Wish I had a partner in crime to talk about all the big ideas Cooper Ramo writes about. I think it would make a good book club read, however, it's a stretch if you aren't up on current events or aren't patient enough to slog through all of his "we'll get to that later" bits (and then hardly does). It made me want to find ways to connect this to my work in education and nonprofits--would love to pick the author's brain over that, not just the big geopolitical strategy kinds of things he talks about. The weakest link in the book is when he tries to connect his ideas to community/personal life--it seems those ideas need to be teased out further. But maybe that's up for us to decide. (show less)

 

 

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No, it's a flop!

Unsatisfying. Has the depth and breadth of a conversational magazine article, loaded with sensationalist language and cross dimensional anecdotes a... (show more)

Unsatisfying. Has the depth and breadth of a conversational magazine article, loaded with sensationalist language and cross dimensional anecdotes as evidence. Spends nearly a hundred pages saying how the world is different, complex and unpredictable, with endless set ups for a soon to come profound insight that never really does. Someone interested in geopolitics but unfamiliar with concepts such as critical thinking biases, resilience, adaptability and the value of empathy would benefit from this as he names these things specifically as tools for handling our strange new world. But I do not think such people exist. Maybe some subset of those with Asperger’s. Some salient points were made on the need for critical thinking, the characteristics of complex systems, the fractal geometry of highly connected ideas, players and systems to create change with greater speed, violence and complexity than “before”, as well as age old human tendencies bollocksing things up, such as needing to be liked over wanting to be right. But none of these are mind-blowing new revelations in a book that set out to address the mind-blowing new world. (show less)

 

 

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  Allow me to make a comment on the reviews. Many of people appreciate the insightful approach of the book but are disappointed that Ramos doesn't offer more fixes to the problems of terrorism, economic crisis, etc. He is calling for a new way of seeing the world that defies (is almost antithetical to) quick fixes.

  While not specifically mentioning it (maybe even being aware of it), Ramos' new way of seeing the world is using Bowen Family Systems theory. Murray Bowen was the director of t... (show more)

  Allow me to make a comment on the reviews. Many of people appreciate the insightful approach of the book but are disappointed that Ramos doesn't offer more fixes to the problems of terrorism, economic crisis, etc. He is calling for a new way of seeing the world that defies (is almost antithetical to) quick fixes.

  While not specifically mentioning it (maybe even being aware of it), Ramos' new way of seeing the world is using Bowen Family Systems theory. Murray Bowen was the director of the National Institutes of Mental Health and developed a new approach to psychiatric/psychological treatment based on the interaction of a patient's "family" emotional field. The way to begin to address a patient's need was to see the deep interrelations with the family. Quick fixes that were aimed just at the patient don't have resilience (to use Ramos' terminology).

  So I am not surprised or even disappointed when Ramos can't or won't offer solutions. The way forward is the difficult work of seeing context, building economic, military, and political resilience, to developing a smart immunological response system to future threats rather than a reactive (too late) head on violent response...bombing terrorists, 300 bazillion dollar bailouts, building walls on a border (ask the Chinese how well this worked).

  Ramos is calling for us to something that is really, really difficult. He doesn't have all the answers. That is why, I think, he has the right approach. (show less)

   

   

  by Garrett Anderson on Jun 05, 2009 at 10:56AM

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  Ramo provides some interesting insights in this book. Essentially, he is arguing for a more network-centric approach to the organization of institutions. In this, I fully agree.

  He relates an interesting metaphor of "the sand pile" to illustrate the complexity of reality and how our current institutions are ill equipped to deal with uncertainty.

  "...Bak hypothesized that after an initial period, in which the sand piled itself into a little cone, the stack would organize its... (show more)

  Ramo provides some interesting insights in this book. Essentially, he is arguing for a more network-centric approach to the organization of institutions. In this, I fully agree.

  He relates an interesting metaphor of "the sand pile" to illustrate the complexity of reality and how our current institutions are ill equipped to deal with uncertainty.

  "...Bak hypothesized that after an initial period, in which the sand piled itself into a little cone, the stack would organize itself into instability, a state in which adding just a single grain of sand could trigger a large avalanche - or nothing at all. what was radical about his idea was that it implied that these sand cones, which looked relatively stable, were in fact deeply unpredictable, that you absolutely no way of knowing what was going to happen next, that there was a mysterious relationship between input and output. You could see the way physics struggled against the very limits of language when confronted by such a subject: organized instability?"

  Ramo argues our current national security institutions no longer are effective when confronted by uncertainty and complexity, in which a tiny change can have large and lasting ramifications. And that these institutions must develop away from straight planning for specific outcomes (which I think is a good idea) and become more loose and adaptable. They must seek to shape the outside environment, rather than control it. In short, our institutions have to learn to "surf the wave."

  As far as this goes, I have no argument with Ramos. I have big problems with our national security institutions being controlled by planners. In my work in Iraq I have seen more damage done by planning than anything else. The utter inability of our institutions to adapt to rapidly changing environments because they have been beholden to a plan has been immeasurable.

  However, my problem with Ramos is that he doesn't offer much in the way of concrete solutions. (I haven't been able to think of anything revolutionary either - but then again, I haven't written a book on the subject.) Take this quote:

  "One could in fact fill an entire book with interesting experiments to be tried in coming years as we wrestle with this new order: fresh ways to boost national savings rates; international efforts to reduce sugar consumption; plans to use the web to make a catalogue of every person in the world dying of AIDS. these and ten thousand other ideas need to be offered and tried - tried free of the cynicism of "we've done that" or "it won't matter." The fact is, we can't know if what didn't work will work today; we can't predict the impact of our attempts to make change, and that is why we need to keep trying it."

  That's great. And I agree. I have had to fight against "the cynicism of 'we've done that' or 'it won't matter'." But the reality is that there ARE limited resources. And once you have to work inside that constriction, THEN you give power to the planners - who are tasked with how to best "efficiently" divide those resources. Which requires a "plan," which then strangles any ability to deal with complexity.

  Please! I'd like to read the book with 10,000 ideas! (show less)

   

   

  by Joshua Rosenblum on May 02, 2009 at 02:59PM

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