Add BookmarkThe J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall
Locate nations on the J Curve - left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the coun... (show more)
Locate nations on the J Curve - left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen China's economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be. Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, THE J CURVE points the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future. (show less)
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Ian Bremmer offers hs theory that nations exist on a "J Curve" plot, with stability on the Y-axis (higher the more stable) and openess on the X-axis (to the right are more open). He offers analysis of various countries (Cuba on the far left of th curve, Russia sliding down the curve, South Africa at the depth of the curve and Turkey on the right side of the curve. Also offers thoughts on the China dilemma. I good read and a new way to look at how nations progress.
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Insightful way of looking at nation states based on a "J Curve". Authoritarian states close down their societies and govern from the right side of the J Curve. Open societies govern from the left side, where the more open they become the more prosperous they are. If a nation is going to move from the right side to the left side there is a dangerous period of instability as it traverses the low spot on the J Curve. Highly recommended.
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