I hate to say this, but looking at the plan as leaked, I have to say no deal. Not unless Treasury explains, very clearly, why this is supposed to work, other than through having taxpayers pay premium prices for lousy assets. As I posted earlier today...

OK, a correspondent directs me to John McCain's article, Better Health Care at Lower Cost for Every American, in the Sept./Oct. issue of Contingencies, the magazine of the American Academy of Actuaries. You might want to be seated before reading this...

OK, one more try. First of all, I don't have a political dog in this fight. I'm happy to believe that crazy speculation distorts markets. And I do think it's likely that oil prices will come down, for a while, once consumers have a chance to respond ...

The chances of a relapse into recession seem to be rising.

And I mean it.

The CBO has now given the Senate bill a clean bill of, um, health on both its budget impact and its impact on families.

What I see is years of terrible job markets, combined with political paralysis.

Vat's OK, then?