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Electoral projections done right. |
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Independent Voters and Empty ExplanationsNov 5, 2009
Karl Rove:
The trend here is that suburban and independent voters moved into the GOP column. The overall shift away from Democrats was 13 points in Virginia, 12 points in New Jersey, and eight points in Pennsylvania.
Looking ahead, the bad news for ...
The Elections: What Happened and Why?Nov 4, 2009
The outcome of all seven contests that we were tracking tonight appears settled, or very nearly so:
Virginia Governor: Republican Bob McDonnell wins by 17 points, toward the upper end of the range predicted by the pollsters, although not to anybody&...
Gubernatorial Races a Poor YardstickNov 3, 2009
Here is the problem with using the results from New Jersey or Virginia tonight to judge the status of the national political environment. It's not so much that the races are "meaningless" in the abstract, but that ticket-splitting is s...
2009 Elections Preview: Maine Question 1 (Gay Marriage)Nov 2, 2009
Maine -- Question 1 -- "Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to perform these marriages?" .
The Positions: A 'Yes' vote overturns same-sex marriage...
Picking on Cliff ClavinOct 23, 2009
A few weeks ago I wrote my Baltimore Sun column about conservatives' attacks on the Post Office as an example of government ineffectiveness and inefficiency. The USPS is, after all, losing money right now--burdened as they are by hefty labor cost...
2009's Most Valuable Democrat Is...Dec 23, 2009
This was supposed to be a brief column on Parker Griffith's defection to the GOP, but it's turned into something a little more ... involved. However, since we've been getting into the weeds a little bit lately on health care policy, I thought it was...
A Bit More Context on Health Insurer StocksDec 22, 2009
As has become all too characteristic of arguments from liberal skeptics of the Democrats' health care plan, analyses of the recent increase in share prices of major publicly-traded health care stocks have been misleading.
As we and other analysts have...
Another Left-Right ConvergenceDec 21, 2009
I'm sorry, but debating the kill-billers on the policy merits of their position has become a bit like debating the global warming denialists. The denalists operate by picking and choosing which evidence they cite and what arguments they respond to. ...
Insurance Stocks Rise on News of Health Care Deal; What's It Mean?Dec 21, 2009
As of 11 AM Eastern time, stocks for the six largest publicly-traded health insurance companies have risen by an average 4.49 percent, as weighted by their market capitalization. As the S&P 500 index had gained 1.09 percent as of 11 AM, these stocks...
Could Obama Have Sold the Public Option?Dec 21, 2009
Wisconsin senator Russ Feingold says the White House wasn't helpful when it came to the public option:
I've been fighting all year for a strong public option to compete with the insurance industry and bring health care spending down. I continued that...
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